Cramer's picks haven't beaten the market--Barron's

No kidding!

I credit Jim Cramer with working very hard at what he loves. And with being a fine communicator, and an under-appreciated writer. And he is likable, when he is not being completely nutty. But the market is just too efficient for him. No argument exists on this, the numbers are in. Only trading "true believers" are willing to commit money to trading approaches for which there is no rational basis to expect bigger gains after taxes as a result.

Because he is on after the markets close, and because the more naive of his viewers are immediately buying his picks, in after-hours trading, a number of day traders will be right there in after hours action, catching those market orders, shorting his picks as those folks buy in. I know that he says not to do that. They do it anyway. Guess how that works out.


Cramer's picks haven't beaten the market--Barron's: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

Markets Made 'Unchanged' Into 20 Percent Gain: Chet Currier of Bloomberg

"If this steady-as-you-go spell has been tough on traders, it has gone down just fine with buy-and-hold investors in the stock market and stock mutual funds." -- Mr. Currier. Pithy and true. If you have been trying to game the Fed, building some sort of trading approach around what will, you hope, go up when an interest rate cut comes, then you haven't made much, or maybe you've even lost ground. If you were just well-invested, well allocated, and so on, you've reason to be smiling as you read this.

Is there a lesson in this? You bet. What has worked in investing continues to work.



Bloomberg.com: Opinion

Jaffe's "Stupid Investment of the Week" (a beginner's day-trading book)

Day-trade by the book and you will get bitten - MarketWatch

What can I add? Don't try this at home, or anywhere else? If fifty percent of day-traders make money, does that mean that it works? Remember the coin-flipping analogy? If you work really intensely at your coin-flipping, and buy some books, and keep at it, ... bad streaks will still bust you, if you play against the house, and the hedge funds, and someone having a hot hand today.

El Dorado is still not there. You can hunt for it all you want. Or you can invest.